Climate change projections
Last week I sat in a climate change lecture and couldn’t help but feel overwhelmed with pessimism as we learned more about Emission scenarios and the Kaya identity. Based on IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) projections, if the world continues to progress in the manner that it is, there is not much confidence that we will be able to make positive changes before 2050. Now, this is not new information but for some reason these scenarios frightened me: all I could think about were the potential repercussions to the islands in the Caribbean if things were to worsen.
Hurricanes & climate change
Then it dawned on me. Things have already worsened. In 2017, my home country St. Maarten experienced hurricanes Irma and Maria. Although this was almost 5 years ago already, the after effects still haunt the country today. Hurricane Irma was a category 5, the worst possible hurricane a country could endure. Before Irma, the worst hurricane the country had experienced was hurricane Luis in 1995. Although hurricane Luis brought its fair share of detriment, the country had more than a decade to rebuild. The same cannot be said this time around: devastating hurricanes are hitting Caribbean countries more often. As I sat and thought about this, I could not help but wonder what the fate of St. Maarten would be if it were to experience another category 5 hurricane this hurricane season?
Research has shown that while hurricanes are natural phenomena, climate change induced by humans has impacted the intensity and duration of these natural disasters. Not only have hurricanes intensified but they are also lasting longer. Hurricanes draw energy from the ocean, this means that the warmer the ocean, the stronger the hurricane gets. Climate change and hurricanes are linked because the increased warming of the ocean can be attributed to the entrapment of excess GHG’s which are emitted into the atmosphere. In other words: the continued burning of fossil fuels can have an effect on the severity and the likeliness of hurricanes.
What does this mean for small Caribbean islands?
With the intensity of hurricanes comes economic instability. Since most small islands in the Caribbean are not fully independent, the effects of hurricane damage also extend to the countries by which they were colonized; creating a bigger dent in the budgets of all parties involved. Not to mention the grave impacts this would have on the people who inhabit these small Caribbean countries.
All in all, while it would be a “far-reaching” opinion that climate change may one day cause a hurricane to wipe out one or more Caribbean islands: literally and/or financially, this is the path we seem to be on if we do not come up with more solutions to our climate change problems.
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